Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
